Early in 2020, CE estimated that channelization, i.e. the share of online gambling that is handled by licensed operators that hold a Swedish gambling license, was 81-85% range and decreasing. The remaining share was part of the black market.
For online casino, a segment where the competition from unlicensed players is particularly fierce, the rate is even lower, 72-78%.
With the recently (April -20) proposed spend limits, we estimate a further decrease, down to a share of only 52-63%.
That means that between one third and one half of the total turnover for online casinos will be accrued in companies that are not part of the Swedish license system, and hence to not pay tax and not adopt to the consumer protection standards that the current regulation prescribes.
The estimates of channelization were obtained using a three-pronged research methodology, newly developed, in a project commissioned by the Swedish Trade Association for Online Gambling (BOS) and has been widely quoted in the industry press globally.