In a report for the think tank European Forum for Sustainable Development (www.efne.eu), Copenhagen Economics has reviewed the literature that models the so called indirect land-use change (ILUC) from biofuels. Observers and policy makers has voiced concern that the production of biofuels will add to the scarcity of arable land and thereby lead to conversion of carbon-rich land such as forest and peatland to crop-land. This concern has been used to argue that emissions from ILUC should be included in the sustainability criteria in the EU directives on Renewable Energy and Fuel Quality.   Due to the indirect nature of ILUC, associated emissions cannot be observed. This calls for the use of complicated modelling to assess how, for example, an increase in production of rape seed (used for biofuels) in France leads to an increase in the global price of food (due to the scarcity of crop-land) and thereby to conversion of forests in Brazil in order to produce more food.   This study argues that while available studies point towards a significant indirect land-use effect from biofuels, the current scientific evidence is not mature enough to be used as the basis of new European legislation. The effects calculated by current models are highly uncertain and differ substantially from model to model. Our conclusion is that a solid base for determining indirect land-use change factors is not currently available to guide a proper regulatory application of indirect land-use change factors and it would thus not be a wise decision to introduce new legislation based on the current state of knowledge.   Read the report here   For more information, please contact partner Helge Sigurd Næss-Schmidt or partner Martin Hvidt Thelle