A No-Deal scenario where the UK leaves the EU without a trade agreement would result in high tariff, new customs procedures and other barriers to agri-food trade. Higher trade costs will deter the competitiveness of Danish food exporters in the UK relative to third countries, and lower UK incomes in a No-Deal scenario will put a downward pressure on prices. In addition, agri-food products that can no longer be sold in the UK are likely to be redirected to alternative markets (including the EU) and put a downward pressure on prices.
The Danish Ministry of Environment and Food has asked Copenhagen Economics to identify alternative markets for Danish agri-food products in a No-Deal scenario.
Based on interviews with large Danish food producers and statistical analysis, the study identifies potentials in both nearby markets and growing agri-food import countries such as South East and East Asia and the Middle-East.
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