Geographical employment potentials from bioeconomy

The task

• Green strategies are needed if Denmark is to reach its future goals on greenhouse gas reductions. One such strategy could be a full-scale implementation of the bioeconomy, implying making use of Denmark’s total biomass potentials.
• Both population and the number of jobs are steadily decreasing through out the countryside of Denmark. Being concentrated in the countryside, bioeconomy could play a significant role in maintaining jobs and economic growth in rural areas
• Copenhagen Economics was asked by Fagligt Fælles Forbund (3F) to quantify the employment potentials from bioeconomy focusing on the distribution of jobs between the countryside and urban areas.

Our approach

• Based on the note ‘+10 mio. tons planen’ we calculate the total number of jobs related to a complete use of biomass potentials in Denmark. Input of biomass is assumed to be used in 6-12 biorefineries located in strategic wise locations throughout Denmark.
• The value chain in bioeconomy includes different types of jobs in different sectors such as farmers in agriculture, drivers in transportation and production workers in manufacturing. Based on sectors and job functions the calculated employment effects are distributed between countryside and urban area employment on a municipality level.
• Finally, the employment effects are estimated in terms of education levels.

 Results

• The employment potential of a full-scale bioeconomy in Denmark is 23,700 jobs by which nearly 80 per cent are located in rural areas.
• The agricultural sector in particular will experience positive employment effects, but also the utilities and construction sectors will see larger employment demand.
• In terms of education levels, we find that 12,000 jobs – corresponding to more than half of the jobs created – will go to individuals with a vocational education.

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