Services trade and the future relationship between the EU and the UK

Original title: Tjenestehandel og det fremtidige forhold mellem EU og Storbritannien

Many previous analyses have examined the effects of Brexit on goods trade, but there have been limited efforts to analyse the impact on Danish services trade in detail. In 2018, Danish services exports to the UK surpassed the goods exports, primarily driven by increased installation of offshore wind turbines in UK waters in recent years.

The UK formally left the European Union in January 2020 but is still a part of the EU Customs Union and the EU Single Market during the transition period, due to last until 31 December 2020. However, the EU and the UK are yet to reach an agreement on the future relationship. The revised political declaration of October 2019 sets out the framework for the future relationship that guides the negotiations. If no agreement is reached – a so-called No deal scenario – trade between the EU and the UK will be governed by WTO rules.

In this report, we examine rules and regulations that are important for the future services trade between Denmark and the UK. We analyse the impacts on the Danish service sectors in four different Brexit scenarios:

The main conclusions of our study are:

The study is commissioned by the Danish Ministry of Industry, Business, and Financial Affairs.