The effects of introducing an exit tax in Sweden

In November 2017, the Swedish Tax Authorities (Skatteverket) proposed a so-called exit tax on unrealized capital gains of physical persons emigrating from Sweden. The proposed exit tax will – if implemented – supersede the so-called “10-year rule” in Swedish tax law and is generally implemented with the aim of protecting the Swedish tax base.

The present study identifies some potential adverse effects of the proposal. High Net-Worth Individuals are globally mobile and will most likely react to the proposed exit tax:

• The mere discussions of an exit tax could imply that Swedish residents might accelerate plans to emigrate.
• Furthermore, highly productive foreigners considering moving to Sweden and Swedes living abroad, but considering returning to Sweden, might be discouraged.
• In general, the exit tax will increase the effective tax level for foreigners planning to live in Sweden for an extended period. For foreigners planning to stay in Sweden for a limited period, the exit tax might shorten their stay, as the rule may create significant kinks in the tax schedule of such individuals, i.e. serve as an incentive to emigrate just before the exit tax becomes effective.

Such effects are potentially costly for the Swedish economy and Swedish business owners.

Furthermore, our study also suggests that the revenue gains from the proposal could be substantially less than estimated in the impact assessment.

The study is commissioned by SVCA