We forecast user needs for broadband in Denmark in 2025-2030 using a “bottom-up” methodology based on the requirements of underlying use cases and the forecasted expansion of these use cases for different user types. User needs are defined in terms of both download and upload speed, as well as latency and stability.
We also consider how internet-based services can contribute to the green transition and digital welfare solutions, and what kind of broadband infrastructure is needed to support these use cases. Furthermore, we explore the extent to which different needs can be met using fixed and mobile infrastructure.
We forecast user needs for six specific user types:
We find that the need for download speed in 2025-2030 will range from just 25 Mbit/s for the least requiring user type to 470 Mbit/s for the user type with the greatest need. The need for upload speed will correspondingly range from 10 Mbit/s to 445 Mbit/s. In other words, download and upload speed is not forecasted to exceed 500 Mbit/s for any of the user types that we considered. We also find that all user types may need low latency connections (less than 3 ms) and a high degree of stability.
There is uncertainty associated with these forecasts in particular due to uncertainty associated with the roll-out of specific cloud-based use cases, which place high requirements in terms of connection speed as well as latency.
We find that many internet-based solutions can contribute to the green transition (such as smart meters and drones), and to supporting digital welfare solutions (such as e-health and AR), but also that many of these use cases do not place very high requirements on the internet connection.
We also find that some use cases require a mobile connection. Conversely, we find that there are relatively few use cases that need a fixed line connection (and even in these cases, 5G mobile services may be sufficient).
The study is commissioned by the Danish Energy Agency (Energistyrelsen).
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