Economic assessment of upcoming EU free trade agreements
Economic assessment of upcoming EU free trade agreements: background report for the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise
the growth of EU trade agreements
As a general rule, free trade agreements (FTAs) are an important tool that the EU uses to boost economic growth, enhance trade, collaboration, and strengthen geopolitical ties worldwide. In view of this, the EU is negotiating a new wave of free trade agreements, adding to a network that already spans EuroMed and Mexico to South Korea, Canada, Japan, and New Zealand. Negotiations have concluded with Australia, India and Indonesia, while the Mercosur agreement (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) was signed in January 2026 and is being provisionally applied. Talks continue with Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and the UAE.
the need for quantifiable evidence for sweden
The expected economic impacts of these agreements are not yet well understood. Impact assessments exist for some partners but not others, they are not readily comparable, and they are made at EU level rather than for individual member states. For Sweden, there is almost no quantified evidence of what the agreements would be worth.
Given Sweden's status as a highly trade-dependent economy and this lack of quantifiable evidence, the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise asked us to estimate the economic impact of the eight upcoming agreements on exports, imports and GDP for the EU, for Sweden, and for the partner countries.
Main conclusions of our report
Our estimates draw on the observed impact of FTAs that the EU has already implemented, applied to the expected trade-cost reductions of each upcoming agreement. They project the potential 2035 impact assuming all eight deals are ratified now and fully phased in by then, and are given as ranges to reflect uncertainty.
As such, we estimate what these deals would be worth in 2035, once fully implemented, for the EU, for Sweden, and for the partner countries, which often gain more in relative terms than the EU does.
EU exports to the eight partners rise by EUR 136–173 billion and imports by EUR 108–130 billion, lifting EU GDP by EUR 36–108 billion (0.2–0.5 per cent)
Swedish exports rise by SEK 62–79 billion and imports by SEK 39–47 billion, with GDP up SEK 13–40 billion (0.2–0.5 per cent)
Mercosur and India account for most of the gain, both being large, fast-growing economies with high trade barriers today
India's GDP rises by EUR 31–72 billion (0.4–1.0 per cent) and Mercosur's by EUR 15–35 billion (0.4–1.0 per cent), as the agreements would largely eliminate import tariffs currently at 14 and 15 per cent
Indian exports to the EU grow by EUR 40–48 billion, and imports from the EU by EUR 56–71 billion
The gains come from lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers cutting trade costs, which raises productivity: exporters gain scale and learn from new markets, while importers get cheaper and more varied inputs and face sharper competition. Not every firm wins, but the overall net effect is positive.
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Related links
Read the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise’s own article about the report here.