Are we facing a raw materials supply gap? An analysis of raw material shortages in Denmark towards 2040
Original title: Står vi overfor et forsyningsgab på råstoffer? Analyse af råstofmangel i Danmark frem mod 2040
Background
Construction raw materials such as sand, gravel and stone are essential to the Danish construction and infrastructure sectors. However, demand is expected to increase towards 2040, while domestic supply is already under pressure and largely relies on local extraction. Crucially, it is becoming increasingly difficult to designate new extraction areas, and alternative sources such as recycling and imports only play a limited role. This points to a growing imbalance between supply and demand, with a risk of a significant supply gap. Against this backdrop, the Confederation of Danish Industry asked us to investigate to what extent Denmark will face a supply gap for construction raw materials towards 2040, and how these different measures could reduce this gap.
Main conclusion: projected shortages could be significant
The demand of raw materials in the Danish construction and infrastructure sectors is projected to increase, and this poses a significant challenge. Increased recycling measures will help alleviate this gap, but only by 30%. And that's only if a comprehensive strategy is effectively implemented. By the numbers, our report's estimates are as follows:
Without new measures, the supply gap is estimated at around 14 million m³ per year in 2040
The assessed measures can reduce the gap by around 5.5 million m³, mainly through alternative materials and more material-efficient design
Even with these measures, a significant remaining gap of around 8.5 million m³ per year is expected in 2040
In conclusion, our report estimates that no current measure is enough to make supply meet demand.
This report was commissioned by Danish Industry and Danske Råstoffer, an industry organisation representing Danish raw material suppliers.
Read the report in Danish below.
In brief
Denmark faces a structural supply gap of around 14 million m³ of sand, gravel, and stone a year by 2040, roughly half of current annual extraction.
14 million m³ The annual shortfall of sand, gravel, and stone expected in 2040 in a reference scenario with no new measures, equivalent to about half of today’s annual extraction.
26-20 million m³ Fall in Danish extraction of sand, gravel, and stone by 2040 in the central estimate, as resources tighten in eastern Denmark. Demand rises to around 40 million m³ a year over the same period.
8.5 million m³ Residual gap remaining in 2040 even with effective implementation of the measures assessed, a reduction of roughly 40 per cent.
3.5 million m³ Largest single contribution from the measures, from alternative materials: lime-stabilised soil, soil washing, and incinerator bottom ash aggregate. Material-efficient design contributes a further 2 million m³; better use of construction waste adds nothing on a net basis.
68%Share of total supply met by land-based extraction in 2024, with marine extraction at 13 per cent, net imports at 11 per cent, and secondary materials at 8 per cent.
Commissioned by DI Byggeri and Danske Råstoffer. Published May 2026. Analysis conducted March to April 2026, with projections to 2040. Denmark.
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Related links
Find the appendix to the analysis here.
About this analysis
Copenhagen Economics analysed the expected development in supply of and demand for raw materials in Denmark to 2040, and assessed the potential of measures that could reduce pressure on primary materials. Demand and supply are projected separately and then compared in a reference scenario without new measures: the demand side builds on the Ministry of Finance’s expectations for construction and civil engineering investment including politically agreed projects, while the supply side reflects constraints on access to new extraction areas. The work combines quantitative projections with industry data, case studies, and interviews with operators in both primary and secondary materials. Assumptions and data sources are documented in an appendix.
The report defines the supply gap as an analytical gap between supply and demand, not a market equilibrium in which prices, imports, activity, and material choices adjust. The authors describe the central estimate as a main path rather than a precise answer, with uncertainty growing to as much as 10 per cent of the central estimate by 2040, and state that the gap could prove either larger or smaller. The analysis is confined to sand, gravel, and stone, and to four named measures. It explicitly does not assess other measures or solutions, scenarios for future imports, or a spatial analysis of supply.