Are we facing a raw materials supply gap? An analysis of raw material shortages in Denmark towards 2040

Background

Construction raw materials such as sand, gravel and stone are essential to the Danish construction and infrastructure sectors. However, demand is expected to increase towards 2040, while domestic supply is already under pressure and largely relies on local extraction. Crucially, it is becoming increasingly difficult to designate new extraction areas, and alternative sources such as recycling and imports only play a limited role. This points to a growing imbalance between supply and demand, with a risk of a significant supply gap. Against this backdrop, the Confederation of Danish Industry asked us to investigate to what extent Denmark will face a supply gap for construction raw materials towards 2040, and how these different measures could reduce this gap.

Main conclusion: projected shortages could be significant

The demand of raw materials in the Danish construction and infrastructure sectors is projected to increase, and this poses a significant challenge. Increased recycling measures will help alleviate this gap, but only by 30%. And that’s only if a comprehensive strategy is effectively implemented. By the numbers, our report’s estimates are as follows:

• Without new measures, the supply gap is estimated at around 14 million m³ per year in 2040
• The assessed measures can reduce the gap by around 5.5 million m³, mainly through alternative materials and more material-efficient design
• Even with these measures, a significant remaining gap of around 8.5 million m³ per year is expected in 2040

In conclusion, our report estimates that no current measure is enough to make supply meet demand.

This report was commissioned by the Confederation of Danish Industry.

Read the report in Danish below.