On 25 June, the Danish government, together with a broad parliamentary majority, reached an agreement on sentencing reform and the budget for the Prison and Probation Service (as of November 2025, Danmarks Fængsler – ‘Denmark’s Prisons’) for the period 2026-2030. The reform aims to strengthen public safety and justice by introducing tougher sentences and strengthening crime prevention efforts.
The reform is being introduced at a time when capacity in the Danish prisons is already under pressure. Over the past seven years, occupancy in the country’s prisons has exceeded the politically agreed maximum utilisation rate of 96%. Additionally, the number of inmates per prison officer has increased from 1.4 to 2.2 over the past decade, exceeding the political target of 1.9 inmates per prison officer.
Against this background, the Danish Bar and Law Society has commissioned Copenhagen Economics to examine whether there is an appropriate balance between the increase in the number of inmates and the staffing and capacity of the prison system.
The reform puts prison conditions under further pressure by exacerbating staff shortages and straining the balance between inmates and capacity
The sentencing reform is expected to lead to an increase in the number of inmates and place additional pressure on prison officers. However, prison capacity should remain sufficient provided that planned expansions are completed on schedule.
The sentencing reform will lead to an increase in inmate numbers by 2030
The prison population is projected to rise by approximately 500 individuals (23%) as a direct result of the reform.[1] This estimate is based on current sentencing practices in 2024 and assumes that crime levels remain stable in the coming years.
Insufficient numbers of prison officers to manage the increase in inmates
At present, Denmark’s open and closed prisons house 2,186 inmates, with an average of 2.2 inmates per prison officer. Meeting the political target of 1.9 inmates per officer would require reducing the inmate population to around 1,850. Without additional recruitment, the ratio is expected to climb to 2.5 by 2030. This reflects persistent understaffing in the prison system. By 2030, there will be a shortfall of 250–300 prison officers if the measures included in the sentencing reform do not reverse the trend. Recent pay increases in 2024 and 2025 are not expected to close this gap, as they have so far failed to boost recruitment and retention.
Prison capacity is finely balanced and depends on everything going according to plan
In 2025, prison occupancy stands at 103%, exceeding the politically agreed target of 96%. Planned expansions of existing capacity are expected to add approximately 800 places by 2030, more than covering the anticipated increase in inmate numbers. As a result, the occupancy rate is projected to fall from 103% to 92% by 2030. However, this outcome depends on the timely completion of the expansions and on crime levels remaining stable. Construction delays or rising crime could ultimately render prison capacity insufficient.
The full report is available in Danish.
[1] Part of the increase can be attributed to a growing number of inmates who will serve life sentences in the future, regardless of the impact of the reform. This is because the current number of life sentences is higher than in previous years, resulting in a larger population of inmates serving life sentences.
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