Ireland & the impacts of Brexit

Ireland is uniquely exposed to Brexit due to a very high trade intensity with the UK. Approximately 15 per cent of Irish goods and services exports are destined to the UK. In certain sectors, the UK is an especially important market, such as the agri-food sector where around 40 per cent of exports are destined for the UK. In addition, two-thirds of Irish exporters make use of the UK landbridge to access continental markets.

The report analyses how changes in the EU-UK trade relationship could affect the Irish economy. The report quantifies how different types of EU-UK trade scenarios could affect Ireland’s trade with the UK and other trading partners. Finally, the analysis provides an assessment of the related macro-economic impacts as well as sector impacts for Ireland for a range of scenarios with different combinations of tariffs and other trade costs for EU-UK trade.

In all scenarios, Brexit will have negative impacts on Irish trade with adverse knock-on effects on Irish production and ultimately Irish GDP. The main conclusions of the study are:

• Increased trade costs will lower Irish exports of goods and services by approximately 3-8 per cent in 2030.
• Brexit will lower Irish GDP by approximately 3-7 per cent in 2030.
• The following five sectors account for the vast majority of the total impact of Brexit: Agri-food, pharma-chemicals, electrical machinery, wholesale and retail and air transport. 

The findings are based on in-depth modelling and extensive stakeholder engagement. All scenarios and analyses contained in the report assume “no policy change” – i.e. before any mitigating actions are taken by the Irish Government. The study concludes that domestic policy responses can mitigate Brexit impacts.

The study is commissioned by the Department of Business, Enterprise and Innovation, for the Government of Ireland.

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